I agree with you guys in general terms, except that we have an image of the two colors together under identical lighting conditions and using the same film stock/processing, and they look to be of distinctly different hues. This is a 3x3 average in Photoshop.
Macao orange on reader in sunlight
Carrier in sunlight
Macao orange on reader in shadow
Carrier in shadow
In both cases it's a slightly deeper hue of red (more yellow in the Macao Orange, and slightly lighter). This is a somewhat pedantic point, however, and it doesn't meant we couldn't in practice actually use Macao Orange in panting these.
FWIW, I'm leaning towards Pantone 7417C at the moment. Here are photos of the color in different lighting contexts.